Caustic soda hot market is difficult to last

Sinochem New Network News this year, China's caustic Soda prices hit a new high in recent years, although the current business start-up load is still relatively low, the market supply situation has not been effectively improved, but the possibility of recurring hot market for a period of time is relatively low The price of caustic soda may enter the downward phase, but the decline will not be too great. At the 13th China Chlor-Alkali Forum held in Guangzhou last weekend, the participants generally agreed.

He Gang, general manager of Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd. pointed out that it is not normal for the domestic caustic soda market to thrive this year. The overall situation of China's caustic soda export market this year is better than in previous years, but it is mainly driven by external irresistible factors such as the Great Earthquake in Japan. In the major export markets of Northeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, China’s supply of goods fell drastically in the second quarter, which drove the price of caustic soda in China and continued the trend in the third and fourth quarters. The price of caustic soda in the domestic market continued to fluctuate last week. The price of 45% membrane base in the northeast region was 1,280 yuan (ton price, the same below), the ex-factory price of 32% ionized membrane base in Shaanxi was 730 yuan, and 30% of the ionized membrane base in Zhejiang was sent to China. The mainstream price is between 950 and 960 yuan, and the 30% ionized membrane base price in Shanxi is between 790 and 840 yuan.

In addition, the market demand of the United States, Australia, Southeast Asia and other countries and regions is relatively stable, despite the obvious psychological exclusion of high-end prices, but in order to ensure production, China's purchase of caustic soda is still a significant increase in the trend. Data show that in the first nine months of this year, cumulative production of caustic soda in China was 18.611 million tons, an increase of 17.7% over the same period of last year. The continuous increase in the export price of liquid caustic soda led to a significant increase in the start-up load of the entire domestic caustic soda production enterprises. This is the main reason for the significant increase in caustic soda production from April to June this year.

Recently, the chlor-alkali plant in Japan that was discontinued due to a major earthquake has resumed production and the export-led advantages have gradually disappeared. At the same time, the chloroalkali enterprise's centralized maintenance period is nearing its end, and the increase in the amount of goods will curb the market price of caustic soda. In addition, due to the influence of cost factors, the downstream enterprises' ability to withstand the current price of caustic soda has reached the limit, and the pressure on the caustic soda market has increased.

Cui Yulong, general manager of Xinjiang Zhongtai Chemical Co., Ltd. pointed out that a serious surplus of production capacity and production is the biggest hidden danger in the caustic soda market, which is also destined to the caustic soda market for a period of time can not be good. Driven by the increasing profitability of caustic soda products in the first half of this year, the process for the production of new caustic soda production plants has accelerated significantly, including 600,000 tons/year of Shandong Jinling Group, 240,000 tons/year of Yihua Chemicals, and Haohua Aerospace Chemical 240000 tons / year, Shaanxi North Chemicals 200,000 tons / year ion membrane project. As of the end of October, China's new caustic soda production capacity reached 3.5 million tons this year, and the cumulative total capacity reached 33.7 million tons.

According to reports, there are still more than 20 provinces in China in the next three years. There is still a caustic soda expansion project plan. Sun Youcai, chairman of Henan Hengtong Chemical Industry Group, said that next year, the renovation and expansion project of more than 1,080,000 tons/year of ion-exchange membrane caustic soda equipment will be put into operation, including Shaanxi Beiyuan Chemical, Hebei Jinniu Chemical, Fujian Longyan Longhua and Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical. The impact of the market will be even greater. Although there are a certain number of diaphragm alkali devices in China gradually withdrawing, which has accelerated the westward shift of production capacity, the increase in production capacity after the expansion and expansion project is put into production still far exceeds the digestion capacity of the domestic market.

Although the hot market is difficult to continue, the caustic soda market does not appear to be ups and downs overall. Wang Fengjun, general manager of Shaanxi Beiyuan Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd., said that although domestic caustic soda's production capacity has been gradually expanded and expanded, the rigid demand in the domestic market remains high. Alumina is one of the main application fields of caustic soda, and its output is basically the same as that of caustic soda production. In the first nine months of this year, the domestic alumina production totaled 26.28 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. According to Chi Junqing, the sales manager of Shandong Xinfa Chemical Co., Ltd., the demand for caustic soda will further increase as several large electrolytic aluminum projects in Xinjiang are put into operation in February next year, and the caustic soda market will resume its upward trend.